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2019年8月5日 本周一（5日）上午，人民币兑美元汇率破7元关口，最大跌幅千点，创逾11年新低。 2008年后，市场逐渐形成人民币兑美元汇率“保七”的心理关口，市场认为中国央行会动用政策手段“保七”。因为一旦"破七"，可能导致外资加速撤离。 但分析师认为，特朗普上周五对中国3000亿美元商品加征关税，此时中国央行允许人民币贬值是合理的，可以促进出口。也有分析师认为，人民币如果贬值过快可能引发资本外流，因此央行可能会稍后出手平稳汇率。 同时也有分析师指出，香港作为最大的离岸人民币业务中心，周一陷入罢工和示威风波，对美元兑人民币交易的流动性或有一定影响。 贸易战的压力 人民币贬值的压力来自贸易战。中国央行相关负责人表示，人民币汇率“破七”主要“受单边主义和贸易保护主义措施及对中国加征关税预期等影响”。 去年贸易战开打以来，人民币持续面临贬值压力。尽管今年新上任的中国央行行长易纲不止一次表示，不会以货币贬值应对贸易争端。但人民币汇率还是在贸易战的硝烟中一路下行。 对于本次“破七”，很多分析师认为是中国央行故意而为。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)资深中国经济分析师朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)认为，在特朗普宣布关税措施之后，在此时点发动此事是合理的。中国在报复关税措施上没有太多选项，出售美债或限制稀土出口等选项并非有力工具，汇率是威力最强大的工具。 因为，人民币贬值有利于中国应对贸易战带来的压力，提振出口，因为对于其他国家而言，人民币贬值意味着中国商品变得更便宜。 也有分析师持反对意见。三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)驻香港的东亚市场研究主管陈仲华(Cliff Tan)认为并没有证据说明中国在贸易战中希望将货币武器化，中国不想进一步激怒特朗普。 陈仲华还提到香港因素的影响。他表示，周一的人民币中间价略弱于市场预期，再考虑到香港因素导致流动性偏低，让市场有了很好的理由推动人民币破七。 周一香港爆发大规模罢工，同时抗议者在不同地铁站发起不合作运动，多条香港铁路线一度停运，机场管理局网站显示，二百多进出客运航班取消。而香港是全球最大的离岸人民币业务中心。 为什么会“破七”？“保七”？ 长期以来，人民币兑美元汇率存在“保七”的心理关口。 2008年次贷危机时，人民币大幅升值，汇率从7.8一路下跌到6.8。中国央行为了稳定人民币汇率，盯住美元，使人民币汇率稳定在6.8-6.89。2016年，人民币面临贬值压力，美元兑人民币中间价一度达6.96，中国央行动用大量外汇使汇率停在7元大关之前。 此后，市场对“保七”形成心理预期，认为央行会动用政策手段使汇率稳定低于这个数字。因为一旦突破这个关口，可能导致投资者对人民币未来贬值的预期进一步放大，使外资加速撤离，届时稳定汇率的难度将大大增加。 今年6月，中国人民银行行长易纲称，中国有能力应对中美贸易战恶化对汇率的挑战，人民币汇率的某个具体数字并不一定特别重要。这句话被广泛解读为央行已不再把“保七”作为底线。 周一人民币“破七”之后，央行相关负责人也出面淡化“破七”的意义。该负责人称，这个“7”不是年龄，过去就回不来了，也不是堤坝，一旦被冲破大水就会一泻千里；“7”更像水库的水位，丰水期的时候高一些，到了枯水期的时候又会降下来，有涨有落，都是正常的。 不过去年底，央行调查统计司原司长盛松成撰文称，人民币汇率“七”是重要的心理关口，“破七”对人们心理预期的冲击非常大，汇率跌破关键关口会引发大面积止损性的交易，人为地“制造”汇率贬值，导致汇率超调。因为做外汇的人都在看，也在看中央银行的决心，一看原来可以不“保七”，那就去做空，本来不做空的现在也做空了，本来做多的现在也不做多了。到7就止住了？止不住的，7.1，7.2，7.3都会来的。 下一步会继续跌吗 跌过7的心理关口，人民币会继续贬值吗？ 路透社援引西太平洋银行策略师Frances Cheung称，人民币破七表明没有什么点位不能破，但如果人民币跌的太快，监管层很可能出手平滑一下市场走势。 因为人民币贬值可能激发资本外流，或者给资产泡沫带来很大压力，中国也不希望人民币贬值过快。 路透社援引澳洲国民银行亚洲市场策略主管Christy Tan表示，允许本币过多过快贬值会付出代价，那就是资本外逃。中国当局很清楚这一点。中国人民银行已经出面发表评论。政策倾向仍是保持稳定。 “中国经济基本面并不意味着人民币兑美元汇率在破7后会出现断崖式下跌。”中国社科院世经政所研究员称，短期内人民币兑美元汇率仍将在7上下保持稳定，除非美国政府在今年下半年继续加征中国商品的进口关税。如果美国方面继续将贸易摩擦进行升级，那么不排除中国政府通过让人民币兑美元汇率在顺应市场压力下进行贬值，来帮助出口企业对冲加税压力的可能性。 ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7o67CZ5qopV%2BvtbC6xrCcp2ejnrqxe8GuqqKmlajAboCYa2pvaWBp

By Joe InwoodBBC Newsnight Benjamin TagartBBC Newsnight previously revealed that more than 200 members of the Triples who had fled to Paksitan were facing deportationFormer Afghan special forces who served alongside the British but were denied relocation to the UK will have their cases re-examined, the government says. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said ineligible applications with credible claims of links to Afghan specialist units would be reassessed. The so-called "

Explore More One week after signing Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract, the Giants back in mid-March gave Jones another present, acquiring tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. The Giants sent a third-round pick in the 2023 draft to the Raiders in exchange for Waller, a noted pass-catcher who had not been able to stay on the field in 2021 and 2022 because of hamstring issues.

Phil Rosenthal net worth is $75 MillionPhil Rosenthal Wiki BiographyPhil Rosenthal was born on the 27th January 1960 in Queens, New York City, USA, and is a screenwriter and film producer, probably best known for his work on the sitcom entitled “Everybody Loves Raymond”, which aired on the CBS channel from 1996 to 2005. His professional career has been active since 1989. Have you ever wondered how rich Phil Rosenthalis is?

ABC’s The Golden Bachelor hometowns are here, and we love watching Gerry Turner’s journey so far. Gerry meets the families of three beautiful women — Faith Martin, Theresa Nist, and Leslie Fhima. We loved Faith initially, as she brings a creative spark to the mix. And as the winner of the First Impression Rose, we knew she’d be around for the long haul. So, what happened to Faith Martin’s husband? Here’s what to know.

Wilhelm Pieck net worth is $2 Million Wilhelm Pieck Wiki: Salary, Married, Wedding, Spouse, Family Friedrich Wilhelm Reinhold Pieck (German pronunciation: [?v?lh?lm ?pi?k]; 3 January 1876 – 7 September 1960) was a German politician and a Communist. In 1949, he became the first President of the German Democratic Republic, an office abolished upon his death. His successor as head of state was Walter Ulbricht, who served as Chairman of the Council of State.

Explore More FAIRFAX, Va. — Johnny Depp vowed that Amber Heard was going to get “total global humiliation,” according to a damning text message read in court by her lawyer on Wednesday. The “Pirates of the Caribbean” star also allegedly called his ex-wife a “50 cent stripper” and referred to her then-boyfriend Elon Musk as “Mollusk,” the texts show. “She’s begging for total global humiliation. She’s gonna get it,” said the missive read by Heard attorney Ben Rottenborn in the Fairfax, Virginia, courtroom.

By Jasmine SandharBBC Newsbeat Getty ImagesThe Super Gremlin rapper has faced several drug offences beforeRapper Kodak Black, who was pardoned three years ago by Donald Trump, has been arrested in Florida on drugs charges. Officers said they noticed a strong smell of marijuana from a black Bentley SUV with the 26-year-old asleep at the wheel inside. According to CBS News, police found a white powder later confirmed to be cocaine when they searched the vehicle.

Getty ImagesAfrican elephant herd with tuskless matriarch.A new study suggests that severe ivory poaching in parts of Mozambique has led to the evolution of tuskless elephants. The study published in Science magazine found that in Gorongosa National Park a previously rare genetic condition had became more common as ivory poaching used to finance a civil war pushed the species to the brink of extinction. Before the war, about 18.5% of females were naturally tuskless.